Backtest-validated weekly gold signal. Live verification in public—see the scorecard below.
Every week, we find the closest historical analogs to today’s macro state.
Then we tell you what happened next.
Live verification in progress. n=16 of 8+ weekly signals logged. Track record begins on the tracker below.
Weekly only. Our daily method: 50% accuracy over 4,584 days. A coin flip. Killed. Other intraday methods exist; we have not tested them all.
Gold is primary. Silver: p = 0.054. Not independently significant. Gold-primary, silver companion.
Signal leans bullish— 64% vs a 53% market base rate. Both directions positive in backtest.
Edge concentrates post-2014. The 2008–2014 third was +2.0%, CI included zero. Regime-shift risk is real.
Backtest is not live. n=16 logged, 14 scored. The 8-week gate is the only real test.
Selection-effect residue: tested multiple horizons before locking the method. FDR survived; not every meta-choice did. Flagged.
Four criteria. Eight weeks. Public scorecard.
Until all four pass for 8 consecutive weeks, no subscribers open.
Gate fails, we don’t launch. Either way, every signal and outcome is public.
| Date | Asset | Direction | Tier | Entry | Exp. 5d | Range | Actual | Actual 5d | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-27 | Gold | BULL | medium | 4,447.5 | +1.36% | -3.01% / +3.44% | 4,436.7 | -0.24% | MISS |
| Could not fetch close for 2026-06-03 | |||||||||
| 2026-05-27 | Silver | BULL | medium | 74.6 | +3.72% | -2.53% / +10.16% | 73.5 | -1.51% | MISS |
| Could not fetch close for 2026-06-03 | |||||||||
| 2026-06-05 | Gold | BULL | medium | 4,337.1 | +0.75% | -1.47% / +3.23% | 4,218.6 | -2.73% | MISS |
| 2026-06-05 | Silver | BULL | medium | 68.9 | +2.19% | -1.54% / +6.02% | 66.7 | -3.31% | MISS |
| 2026-06-12 | Gold | BULL | medium | 4,215.0 | +1.27% | -1.13% / +3.30% | 4,185.3 | -0.70% | MISS |
| 2026-06-12 | Silver | BEAR | low | 67.9 | -0.33% | -3.25% / +5.64% | 65.2 | -3.88% | HIT |
| 2026-06-18 | Gold | BULL | low | 4,224.1 | +0.43% | -5.96% / +3.62% | 4,030.5 | -4.58% | MISS |
| Fired 2026-06-27 on a stale feed — data and entry price are from 2026-06-18 (six trading days earlier). Counted as-is. Staleness guard added 2026-07-04. | |||||||||
| 2026-06-18 | Silver | BEAR | low | 66.3 | -0.89% | -7.53% / +6.13% | 58.4 | -11.93% | HIT |
| Fired 2026-06-27 on a stale feed — data and entry price are from 2026-06-18 (six trading days earlier). Counted as-is. Staleness guard added 2026-07-04. | |||||||||
| 2026-07-01 | Gold | BEAR | medium | 4,068.3 | -0.90% | -8.19% / +3.60% | 4,137.6 | +1.70% | MISS |
| tnx 2026-06-29..2026-07-01 from FRED DGS10 (Yahoo ^TNX stale at 2026-06-26) | |||||||||
| 2026-07-01 | Silver | BEAR | medium | 60.1 | -1.38% | -13.14% / +3.90% | 61.0 | +1.56% | MISS |
| tnx 2026-06-29..2026-07-01 from FRED DGS10 (Yahoo ^TNX stale at 2026-06-26) | |||||||||
| 2026-07-10 | Gold | BEAR | medium | 4,104.1 | -1.86% | -6.06% / +5.09% | 3,988.6 | -2.81% | HIT |
| 2026-07-10 | Silver | BEAR | low | 59.8 | -1.21% | -13.48% / +5.94% | 55.7 | -6.91% | HIT |
| 2026-07-17 | Gold | BEAR | medium | 4,012.7 | -0.62% | -4.73% / +4.00% | 4,028.7 | +0.40% | MISS |
| 2026-07-17 | Silver | BULL | low | 56.0 | +0.53% | -7.08% / +3.85% | 57.6 | +2.84% | HIT |
| 2026-07-23 | Gold | BULL | low | 4,046.6 | +0.29% | -3.90% / +1.67% | PENDING | ||
| 2026-07-23 | Silver | BEAR | low | 57.8 | -0.68% | -7.08% / +3.87% | PENDING | ||
Updated automatically every Saturday after US close. Outcomes sourced from yfinance, never manually entered.
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