Eight weeks of public proof. No payment without proof.

Backtest-validated weekly gold signal. Live verification in public—see the scorecard below.

58.3%

Directional hit rate · Backtest 2008–2026 · 916 obs

✗

First score: 2026-06-03 · Weeks logged: 1 · Weeks scored: 1

↓ Read the method

01 / Method

Macro-state analogs over 22 years of data.

Every week, we find the closest historical analogs to today’s macro state.

Then we tell you what happened next.

Backtest · 2008–2026 · Walk-forward · n=916

58.3%

Directional
hit rate

+5.3%

Edge vs.
always-long

p=.0025

Statistical
significance

Hit rate CI: [55.5%, 61.3%]

Always-long baseline: 52.9%

Edge CI: [+1.7%, +9.2%]

Observations: 916 non-overlapping

Forecast–actual r: 0.22

Sub-period stable: all 3 eras positive

Live verification in progress. n=2 of 8+ weekly signals logged. Track record begins on the tracker below.

02 / Disclosures

Six things every honest signal seller discloses.

Weekly only. Our daily method: 50% accuracy over 4,584 days. A coin flip. Killed. Other intraday methods exist; we have not tested them all.

Gold is primary. Silver: p = 0.054. Not independently significant. Gold-primary, silver companion.

Signal leans bullish— 64% vs a 53% market base rate. Both directions positive in backtest.

Edge concentrates post-2014. The 2008–2014 third was +2.0%, CI included zero. Regime-shift risk is real.

Backtest is not live. n=2 logged, 2 scored. The 8-week gate is the only real test.

Selection-effect residue: tested multiple horizons before locking the method. FDR survived; not every meta-choice did. Flagged.

03 / The Gate

Eight weeks of verified live signals before anyone pays.

Four criteria. Eight weeks. Public scorecard.

Until all four pass for 8 consecutive weeks, no subscribers open.

✗

Gold hit rate ≥ 53%

Edge vs. always-long > 0

Range capture 65–90%

No regime anomaly

Gate fails, we don’t launch. Either way, every signal and outcome is public.

04 / Track Record

Every signal, scored in public, from week zero.

Date	Asset	Direction	Tier	Entry	Exp. 5d	Range	Actual	Actual 5d	Outcome
2026-05-27	Gold	BULL	medium	4,447.5	+1.36%	-3.01% / +3.44%	4,436.7	-0.24%	MISS
2026-05-27	Silver	BULL	medium	74.6	+3.72%	-2.53% / +10.16%	73.5	-1.51%	MISS

2026-05-27 MISS

GOLD

BULL · MEDIUM

ENTRY$4,447.5

EXPECTED+1.36%

RANGE[-3.01%, +3.44%]

ACTUAL4,436.7

ACTUAL 5D-0.24%

2026-05-27 MISS

SILVER

BULL · MEDIUM

ENTRY$74.6

EXPECTED+3.72%

RANGE[-2.53%, +10.16%]

ACTUAL73.5

ACTUAL 5D-1.51%

Weeks Logged

Weeks Scored

First Score Due

2026-06-03

Gate Progress

1 / 8

Updated automatically every Saturday after US close. Outcomes sourced from yfinance, never manually entered.

05 / Waitlist

Hear from us when the gate passes.

Email-only. We’ll write when the gate passes—or when it fails.

We’ll never share your email. Unsubscribe link in every message.